Growth expectations for Turkey and Germany from 2026 onward point to a clear divergence between the two economies. Official government programs and projections by international institutions indicate that Turkey is moving onto a significantly stronger growth trajectory compared with Germany.
Turkey Enters 2026 with Strong Growth Ambitions
In Turkey, inflation in 2025 exceeded initial forecasts. Persistently high inflation, along with pressure from exchange rates and interest rates, underscores ongoing economic vulnerabilities and risks. Despite these challenges, the Turkish economy continues to expand.
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According to Turkey’s Presidential Program for 2026, the economy is targeted to grow by 3.8 percent. International organizations such as the OECD project that Turkey’s growth rate could approach 4 percent. Domestic demand, exports, and investment-focused policies are expected to remain the main drivers of economic growth.
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Economic expectations for Germany in 2026 are considerably more restrained. Forecasts by the European Commission and German economic research institutes suggest that Germany’s economy will grow by around 1 percent. High energy and production costs, combined with uncertainty in global demand, continue to weigh on economic recovery.
Sources: OECD, IMF, Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, ifo Institute for Economic Research
